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As Hydrogen’s Levelized Cost Projections Fall Toyota Sends It Racing
Hydrogen's potential as an alternative fuel continues to divide public opinion. Yet it's levelized cost, or the measure of average net present cost of production as a fuel or heat source for a generating plant over its lifetime, especially from renewable energy via electrolysis of water, is likely to fall considerably over the coming years.
For instance, according to BloombergNEF, the costs of producing 'green' hydrogen from renewable electricity should fall by up to 85% from the present day to 2050, leading to costs below $1/kg ($7.4/MMBtu) by 2050 in most modelled markets.
To arrive at its latest projection, the analysis firm looked at 28 major markets that account for a third of global GDP. Having focused its modelling on 627 projects in these markets, BNEF not only noted lower levelized costs across the board but opined earlier this month that 'green' hydrogen should get cheaper than both 'blue' hydrogen (from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage) and even polluting 'grey' hydrogen (from fossil fuels without CCS).
The above costs are 13% lower than the firm's previous 2030 forecast and 17% lower than its previous 2050 forecast, with falling costs of solar PV electricity used in hydrogen generation being the key driver behind the reduction.
Should the forecasts materialize, such "low renewable hydrogen costs could completely rewrite the energy map," says Martin Tengler, lead hydrogen analyst at BNEF. "It shows that in future, at least a third of the world economy could be powered by clean energy for not a cent more than it pays for fossil fuels."
Of course, proponents of hydrogen do acknowledge that continued government and policy-supported investment would be needed to get from the high part of the hydrogen cost curve we are in at the moment to the low part in the future.
Automakers and their partner fuel vendors in many quarters remain suitably excited, and none more so than Toyota. The Japanese automaker has consistently nailed its colors to the mast via its Mirai range. It is now going one step further by testing the performance of a new hydrogen engine by installing it in a race car that will compete in one of Japan's toughest motorsport events.
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