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Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. nike air max 90 prm tape qs infrared . Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. nike air max 90 womens uk . Miller finished in two minutes, 6.09 seconds, one day before the first medal race on the Alpine schedule. The 36-year-old American also turned in the top time in Thursdays opening training session. nike air max 90 sale uk . PETERSBURG, Fla.VANCOUVER -- Buck Pierce prepared for his retirement from the CFL by getting into the restaurant business while he was still playing. But the quarterback hopes to stay involved in football after officially calling it quits Tuesday. "Id love to look at those opportunities as they arise," Pierce said in an interview from his Winnipeg eatery. "(Football) is my passion. Ive always been a student of the game and looked up to coaches. "Obviously, (the passion doesnt end) just because you stop playing. That competitive fire will never burn out." Pierce split last season between the Lions and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, throwing for 1,176 yards, five touchdowns and seven interceptions. Over nine seasons with Winnipeg and B.C., he completed 1,200 passes for 15,289 yards, 76 TDs and 63 interceptions. "I feel pretty good about (retiring) actually," he said. "I feel that, over the last nine years, its been a great career for me. I enjoyed every minute of it. The teammates, the organizations were the part that were great experiences for me. Its a hard day also, in a way, for me because its what Ive known. Its what Ive been about for the most part of my life. "So its a big day in both ways. But Im also excited about the next phase of my life and moving on." Pierce, a 32-year-old Hutchinson, Kan., native who played collegiately at New Mexico State, originally signed with the Lions in 2005. He was a key member of the club as both a backup and starter through five seasons before playing 3 1/2 seasons with the Blue Bombers. He returned to B.C. last September in a trade that brought wide receiver Akeem Foster to Winnipeg. "Buck was a fearless competitor who never hesitated to put his body on the line for our organization," Lions general manager Wally Buono said in a news release. Pierces career was marred by multiple injuries as he chose to take a hit instead of sliding or running out of bounds before getting tackled. But he said the rewards were worth the punishment. "I wouldnt change anything I played the game the way that I felt this game should be played, and I felt that I represented myself extremely well on and off the field," he said. "Theres always going to be critics, and people are going to say what theyre going to say, but at the end of the day, I represented myself and my family and this league in a positive way." He won a Grey Cup with the Lions in 2006 and led the Bombers to the 2011 championship game, where they lost 34-23 to B.C. "Obviously, winning the Grey Cup in 06 was a big pointt in my life," he said. nike air max 90 prm tape. "Theres lots of memories. You dont necessarily remember all of the big wins and stuff like that. But when you play almost a decade, you have lots of teammates and you see lots of teammates be traded and all these things, so you have lots of memories that stick with you. "Obviously, when I helped the Bombers get to a Grey Cup in Vancouver, that was a big part, and I felt very good about what we accomplished that year." His final CFL campaign, when he was relegated to third-string status with the Blue Bombers before being dealt, was "extremely difficult." "But its all about what he you take away from situations and what you learn," he said. "I was fortunate enough to get traded to B.C., where it all started, and I had some great games at the end of the year. Im privileged and excited to be retiring as a Lion." Pierce had "extremely minor" arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder following the season and would have needed to get another contract from the Lions. But neither his health nor contract issues affected the decision to retire. "I didnt know what was going to happen (after) last year," he said. "I wanted it to be my decision. It wasnt money. It wasnt about injuries. It wasnt about anything else. It was about where I was at my point in my career and moving forward and taking that next step -- and about taking advantage of some of the opportunities that I have out there." Noting he had reached a state of contentment, Pierce expressed gratitude to fans, teammates an
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